According to new analysis from energy consultancy LCP Delta, Great Britain is “unlikely to meet its target” of generating 95% of electricity from clean power by 2030.
The company’s latest GB Power Market Outlook forecasts that clean power generation will reach 83% by 2030 under current plans, with the 95% target not expected to be achieved until 2035.
Even under its most ambitious ‘Accelerated Build’ scenario, the report suggests the milestone would be reached in 2032.
Clean power generation has increased steadily in recent years, rising from 68% in 2020 to 74% by the end of 2025. However, the report estimates that a further 28GW of renewable capacity would be needed to achieve the Government’s 2030 target.
The analysis models several possible pathways for decarbonising Great Britain’s electricity system and assesses progress towards the Clean Power 2030 objective.
Despite falling short of the target, the report concludes that policies introduced over the past two years are expected to deliver significant changes to the electricity system by the end of the decade.
By 2030, gas use is forecast to fall by 38% compared with 2024, rising to 52% under the Accelerated Build scenario.
Renewable capacity is expected to almost double, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 36% compared with current levels, or around 46% under the accelerated scenario.
Gas is also projected to set electricity prices less than half of the time by 2030, down from 85% in 2025.
Grid constraints remain a major obstacle
According to the report, one of the main barriers to achieving the 2030 target is the continued reliance on gas generation to manage constraints on the electricity network.
Under current projections, around 27TWh of renewable electricity would be curtailed in 2030 because it cannot be transported to areas of demand, while 16TWh of gas generation would instead be brought online.
LCP Delta says that accelerating key network upgrades in East Anglia, improving existing infrastructure, and reforming balancing mechanisms could increase clean power generation to around 90% by 2030.
The report also suggests that a cleaner electricity system would help reduce consumers’ exposure to fluctuations in international gas prices.
It estimates that a gas price shock similar to that experienced following disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would increase household energy bills by around 4% in 2030, compared with 24% in a system without Contracts for Difference-backed renewable generation.
An accelerated rollout of clean power could also reduce the average household electricity bill by around £40 in 2030 compared with 2026, according to the analysis.
LCP Delta says that moving policy costs associated with older renewable schemes to general taxation, alongside removing VAT, could reduce average bills by a further £64.
The company is calling on the Government to accelerate renewable deployment, reduce grid connection delays, deliver network upgrades, and introduce measures to reduce network constraints.
Sam Hollister, Head of UK Market Strategy at LCP Delta, explains, “While our analysis shows that Great Britain is unlikely to meet its 2030 Clean Power target, the direction of travel is clear: by the end of the decade, the energy system will have undergone a profound transformation.
“Renewable capacity is set to provide over 70% of our power needs in just a few years, weaning the country off volatile international gas markets whilst halving the power sector carbon emissions compared to 2025.
“For consumers, one of the biggest benefits will be greater protection from external gas price shocks. A cleaner power system means lower reliance on gas, helping to shield households from the kind of price volatility seen during recent energy crises whilst benefiting the climate.
“Importantly, there are actions the Government can take beyond current policy to accelerate renewable deployment, tackle grid constraints, and unlock the full benefits of the clean power transition.”
