Solar panels soak up the sun and power thousands of homes, but the scale of the energy they produce has remained hidden behind customers’ smart meters.
Now, distribution network operator UK Power Networks is using AI to shine a light on the scale of clean energy generated.
Every day, thousands of homes and businesses generate solar energy that never gets formally measured because it happens behind customers’ smart meters.
This makes it harder for grid operators to predict energy flows accurately – important for planning upgrades to the network and buying flexibility at the right time, especially on sunny days when solar output surges.
To tackle the challenge of making rooftop solar more visible, the ‘AI for Visibility and Forecasting of Renewable Generation’ project, developed in partnership with Open Climate Fix (OCF), uses machine learning to estimate rooftop solar capacity not captured by the grid.
The project combines data from UK Power Networks’ Open Data Portal with OCF’s open-source code.
By uncovering this ‘invisible’ energy generated, the project aims to help grid operators make better forecasts and decisions, ensuring money is only being spent where it’s needed and that space is created for low-carbon technologies to connect.
The AI-driven project analyses historical weather and satellite data alongside UK Power Networks’ substation measurements to estimate how much solar power is being generated in real time.
Uniquely, the model maps rooftop solar generation without relying on imagery. These insights feed into a forecasting model that predicts how much unmetered solar energy will be produced at each primary substation.
By the end of 2023, the UK had 20 gigawatts of solar power installed, including 4.2GW on homes. Total solar capacity is expected to grow to 90GW by 2035 — enough to power up to 5 million households.
Home solar alone could save people around £2.65 billion a year on energy bills. To ensure Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) have the capacity to support these steps towards net zero, they need to know where solar is being installed and how much power it’s generating.
Using AI, UK Power Networks says it can now estimate rooftop solar generation much more accurately than traditional methods.
Luca Grella, Head of Innovation, says, “This project is about shining a light on the solar power we can’t currently see.
“By using AI to estimate and forecast rooftop solar generation, we’re unlocking a clearer, smarter view of the electricity system — one that helps us plan better, reduce costs, and accelerate the journey to net zero.
“We’re excited to uncover what’s been hidden and put that clean energy to work for everyone.”
Dan Travers, Co-founder of Open Climate Fix, adds, “We believe that modern technology can provide transformative solutions that will enable a more efficient and cost-effective electricity grid.
“Our collaboration with UK Power Networks is the perfect example of how the UK can harness AI to create tools that proactively support the transition to net zero.
“We’re thrilled to be partnering with UK Power Networks on this innovation project and look forward to delivering work that will have a direct impact for consumers.”
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